Nifty Report and forecast 5th May 2016

Nifty Future is showing lack of downside momentum as market failed to move lower in its multiple attempt after breaking below the intraday low. After a sharp fall early this week this price pattern is encouraging for traders with bullish view. However, lack of momentum itself does not ensure trend reversal and thus price action itself needs to provide confirmation.For short term trend reversal the confirmation will comes only if market sustain above the level of 7800 mark. And a move above 8000 to consider that market resumes its medium term up trend.

Today's trading session Nifty bounced back from slightly above the level of 7700 mark, where we see a gap exists in daily chart during last month. A gap being the imbalance of demand and supply offer important clue regarding support and resistance. We expect the level around 7700 to play a pivotal role for the market direction going forward.

It seems that market is taking time to evaluate how valuation stands out during earning season. Earning so far, have been decent. One surprise move up is likely to come from banking stocks once the earning session will be completed as those being under stressed asset situation, is start showing resilience in its numbers. That could be the next trigger for the market along with the monsoon.

Stock specific we believe if market bounces off the support and starts a rally those stock showing significant strength by holding around its relative high, despite of recent market correction will outperform. One such stock is BATA India ltd, The stock in its daily chart is in strong uptrend. If it manages to move above the level of 575 the stock is likely to move till 600. Traders are advised to maintain a stop below 565 to control risk in adverse situation.

Nifty Report and forecast 3rd May 2016

Technically, in weekly charts Nifty Future is forming reversal Doji candlestick pattern consecutively for two weeks below psychological level of 8000. Today's trading session Nifty breached the important support mark of 7800 and gave closing below the same. So correction can be seen till 7700 levels which is a strong support going forward according to gap theory.

Fundamentally, the Indian market is slightly running ahead of fundamentals and valuation which is not cheap as we have seen Nifty PE ratio is hovering around 22, but they are not extremely expensive. The market is expecting the earnings to improve as well as macroeconomic condition.

Stock specific we expect Apollo Hospital to go further down. The stock in its intraday chart is consolidated above the support mark of 1294. If it manages to  breach the level of 1294  the stock is likely to move till 1280 . Traders are advised to maintain a stop below 1305 to control risk in adverse situation.

Support- 7750,7700,7650

Resistance:- 7900,7950,8000

Nifty weekly forecast 02-05-2016 to 06-05-2016

Last week Nifty future was on roller coaster ride as it closed in negative with marginal losses to hit lowest level in more than two weeks. The negative sentiments in the markets was triggered by the Japanese central bank, which held off from expanding monetary stimulus, pulled global stocks lower. Market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was mixed as buying was witnessed in sectors specifically in private banks, realty, metals, cement, and select mid cap stocks etc.  

Macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), movement of crude oil prices and next batch of Q4 results of companies like HDFC ltd, Adaniport, Eicher Motors, Hero Moto Corp to be announced will dictate trend of the market in near term.   

Nifty Future gave weekly closing at 7894.80 with marginal losses of 16.35 points.

Technically, in weekly charts Nifty Future is forming revesal Doji candlestick pattern consecutively for two weeks below psychological level of 8000 which suggests indecisiveness for the continuation of the current up trend.  Thus, in near future level of 8000 will act as an immediate resistance and on downside immediate support level is at 7800 levels.  If it breaches its immediate resistance level of 8200 would be the next target and on down side if support is broken correction can be seen till 7700 levels which is a strong support going forward according to gap theory. 

Nifty Report and forecast 2nd May 2016

Technically, Nifty on daily charts looking bullish. Nifty traded in tight range of 7800-8000. Unless nifty  does not breaches level of 7800 and sustain below it on closing basis , the probability of recovery from this support mark is high. It is traded above 50 & 100 DMA which indicates chances are very high that it will break above the level of 8000.

Fundamentally also, The Indian market is slightly running ahead of fundamentals and valuation which is not cheap as we have seen Nifty PE ratio is hovering around 22, but they are not extremely expensive. The market is expecting the earnings to improve as well as macroeconomic condition.

Stock specific we expect Zee Entertainment Ltd to go further up. The stock in its intraday chart is about to break out above the major resistance of 418-19. If it manages to move above the level the stock is likely to move till 425. Traders are advised to maintain a stop below 415 to control risk in adverse situation.

Support- 7800,7750,7700

Resistance:-7950,8000,8150

Nifty Report 28th April 2016

Technically, Nifty on daily charts looking bullish. Nifty witnessed volatility due to expiry of future and option contract. However, today nifty tested its important psychological level of 8000 but could not able to sustain above it.  Unless nifty  does not breaches level of 7800 and sustain below it on closing basis, the probability of recovery from this support mark is high.

Fundamentally also, Nifty PE Ratio is hovering around 21.65 although it is not cheap, neither we can consider it expensive and there is room of expansion as we expect corporate earning to deliver near to consensus growth expectation of 14-15 per cent FY 17. Nifty P/B ratio is 3.24, only a move above 4.00 could be consider as overbought. So no concern in that front also.

 

Support- 7800,7750,7700

Resistance:-7950,8000,8150