Nifty Report 28th April 2016

Technically, Nifty on daily charts looking bullish. Nifty witnessed volatility due to expiry of future and option contract. However, today nifty tested its important psychological level of 8000 but could not able to sustain above it.  Unless nifty  does not breaches level of 7800 and sustain below it on closing basis, the probability of recovery from this support mark is high.

Fundamentally also, Nifty PE Ratio is hovering around 21.65 although it is not cheap, neither we can consider it expensive and there is room of expansion as we expect corporate earning to deliver near to consensus growth expectation of 14-15 per cent FY 17. Nifty P/B ratio is 3.24, only a move above 4.00 could be consider as overbought. So no concern in that front also.

 

Support- 7800,7750,7700

Resistance:-7950,8000,8150

 

Weekly Nifty Forecast 25-04-2016 to 29-04-2016

Nifty Future gave gap up opening this week ,it hit high of 7984.50 since wholesale prices fell for a 17th straight month in March, declining by an annual 0.85 percent. It traded in tight range between 7985 and 7850,thus formed a doji candlestick pattern on weekly charts, indicating indecisiveness among traders,Overall health of market was indicating that bulls were taking control over bears for the short term up trend of index.

Nifty Future given closing at 7915.10 with the marginal gain of 47.25 points.

Trend in global market, investment by FII and DII , movement of rupee against dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend in near term. Market may remain volatile ahead of expiry of derivative contracts as traders may roll over their position from near to next month contracts .Stock specific movement can be observed as India bulls Housing Finance, India bulls real estate, ACC, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Yes Bank etc. will declare their quarter four numbers in upcoming week.

Technically, Nifty future has sustained above its 200 days moving average this week which is lying near the level of 7870 and is facing strong resistance at the level of 8000. Any fall below the 7850 support mark can result in some correction in index till the next support level of 7790, while with the crossing of major resistance of 8000, it may test the level of 8150.

Weekly Bullion Report 14th March 2016

GOLD FUTURES NEAR 13-MONTH HIGH ON DELAYED FED RATE HIKE BETS

 

Gold futures climbed back towards the highest level in more than a year last week, supported by hopes the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates as soon as next week's policy meeting. But on Friday Gold prices retreated from a fresh 14-month peak, as a recovery in the U.S. dollar, stronger global equity markets and higher oil prices dented the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

FUNDAMENTALS

Gold for April delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange slumped $13.40, or 1.05%, to end Friday’s session at $1,259.40 a troy ounce after hitting an intra day high of $1,287.80, the most since January 27, 2015. For the week, gold prices dipped $1.10, or 0.88%.

 

CRUDE OIL RISES BOOSTED BY WEAKER DOLLAR

 

Crude Oil prices jumped last week boosted by the weaker dollar. The Chinese Yuan hit its highest level in 2016 on Friday, reflecting a weakening of the dollar against other major currencies. A weaker dollar is supportive for oil prices as it makes dollar-traded oil cheaper, potentially spurring fuel demand.

 

INVENTORY

 

Crude Oil futures surged by 4%, erasing all of their losses from the previous day's sell-off, following the release of a bullish U.S. supply report on Wednesday morning. Crude Oil rose by 3.9 million barrels for the week ending on March 4. At 521.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are at historically high levels for this time of year.

 

 

COPPER FUTURES RISE ON GLOBAL CUES

 

Copper prices rose last week, on global concerns also prices boosted by a rally in crude oil. China's Copper industry is urging the government to allow the blending of raw material copper concentrate imports when they land at the country's ports, which will allow for cheaper though toxic supply to arrive.

 

 

FUNDAMENTAL

 

Copper for May delivery inched up 2.1 cents, or 0.95%, on Friday to end the week at $2.241 a pound. For the week, COMEX copper prices lost 2.8 cents, or 1.41%, amid renewed jitters over the health of China’s economy.

 

 

GOLD FUTURES NEAR 13-MONTH HIGH ON DELAYED FED RATE HIKE BETS

 

Market overview

Gold futures climbed back towards the highest level in more than a year last week, supported by hopes the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates as soon as next week's policy meeting.

 

Strategy

For the next week in Gold, traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If COMEX Gold breaks the level of $1300.00 an ounce on upside, then it can test the levels of $1320.00 - $1340.00 an ounce. Similarly if MCX Gold April futures breaks the level of 30000 then it can test the levels of 30300-30500 on the upside till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 29750 in the same.

 

Support and Resistance

Major support in COMEX Gold is $1190 and $ 1150

Major resistance in COMEX Gold is $1350 and $1385

Major support in MCX Gold is 28400 and 28000

Major resistance in MCX Gold is 30800 and 31200

 

 

SILVER RECOVERS ALONG WITH EURO AFTER DRAGHI REMARKS

 

Market overview

Silver prices rebounded from sharp losses last week, battling back along with the Euro after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said interest rates aren’t likely to be cut again after delivering a stronger-than-expected package of stimulus measures.

 

Strategy

For the next week in Silver traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If COMEX Silver breaks the level of $15.95 an ounce on upside, then it can test the levels of $16.65 - $17.35 an ounce. Similarly if MCX Silver May futures break the level of 38200 then it can test the levels of 38700-39200 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 37800 in the same.

 

Support and Resistance

Major support in COMEX Silver is $14.50 and $13.50

Major resistance in COMEX Silver is $17.50 and $18.50

Major support in MCX Silver is 35900 and 35100

 

Major resistance in MCX Silver is 39500 and 40500

 

 

 

CRUDE OIL RISES BOOSTED BY WEAKER DOLLAR

 

Market overview

Crude Oil prices jumped last week boosted by the weaker dollar. A weaker dollar is supportive for oil prices as it makes dollar-traded oil cheaper, potentially spurring fuel demand.

 

Strategy

For the next week in Crude oil, traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If NYMEX Crude oil breaks the level of $40.00 a barrel on up side, then it can test the levels of $41.20 - $42.40 a barrel. Similarly if MCX Crude oil March futures breaks the level of 2650 then it can test the levels of 2750-2820 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 2550 in the same.

 

Support and Resistance

Major support in NYMEX Crude oil is $25.00 and $22.00

Major resistance in NYMEX Crude is $43.00 and $47.00

Major support in MCX Crude oil is 2300 and 2200

 

Major resistance in MCX Crude oil is 3000 and 3100

 

 

COPPER FUTURES RISE ON GLOBAL CUES

 

Market overview

Copper prices rose last week, on global concerns also prices boosted by a rally in crude oil.

 

Strategy

For the next week in Copper, traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If COMEX Copper breaks the level of $2.2780 per pound on up side, then it can test the levels of $2.3180-$2.358 per pound. Similarly if MCX Copper April futures breaks the level of 345.00 then it can test the levels of 355.00-365.00 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 335.00 in the same.

 

Support and Resistance

Major support in COMEX Copper is $2.0500 and $2.0900

Major resistance in COMEX Copper is $2.4910 and $2.531

Major support in MCX Copper is 290.00 and 280.00

 

Major resistance in MCX Copper is 370.00 and 3380.00

 

 

NATURAL GAS PRICES REVERSE GAINS AFTER U.S. STORAGE DATA

 

Market overview

Natural gas futures turned lower last week, reversing gains after data showed U.S. natural gas supplies in storage fell broadly in line with market expectations last week. Natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended March 4 declined by 57 billion cubic feet, in line with expectations.

 

Strategy

For the next week in Natural gas, traders can use sell on higher levels strategy. If NYMEX Natural gas breaks the level of $1.600 per mmbtu on downside, then it can test the levels of $1.470- $1.340 per mmbtu. Similarly if MCX Natural gas March futures breaks the level of 109.00 then it can test the levels of 100.20-92.00 on the downside till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 117.00 in the same.

 

Support and Resistance

Major support in NYMEX Natural gas is $1.300 and $1.100

Major resistance in NYMEX Natural gas is $3.322 and $3.522

Major support in MCX Natural gas is 90.00 and 80.00

 

Major resistance in MCX Natural gas is 140.00 and 150.00

 

 

THE INDIAN RUPEE TRADED ON A FLAT NOTE

 

Market Overview

The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note in the last week owing to persistent buying of the American currency by importers and banks. However sharp losses were capped owing to the post-budget euphoria that has attracted foreign portfolio investors.

 

Strategy

For the next week in USDINR, traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If USDINR breaks the level of 67.500 on upside, then it can test the levels of 68.200 – 68.900 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 68.200 in the same.

 

Support and Resistance

Major support in USDINR is 63.300 and 62.100

 

Major resistance in USDINR is 70.000 and 71.000

 

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Weekly Bullion Report 21st March 2016

FUNDAMENTAL MARKET OVERVIEW

GOLD FUTURE PRICES EDGED LOWER AFTER STRONG DOLLAR

Gold Future prices edged lower on last week, as a recovery in the U.S. dollar and stronger global equity markets dented the metal’s safe-haven appeal, prompting market players to take profits after a sharp rally the day before.

FUNDAMENTALS

Gold for April delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange slumped $10.70, or 0.85%, to end of week at $1,254.30 a troy ounce. For the week, gold prices dipped $2.20, or 0.39%, the fourth losing week in five. 

CRUDE OIL HITS 2016 HIGHS ON HOPES FOR OUTPUT FREEZE

Crude oil futures hit fresh highs for 2016 on last week and were set to post gains for a fifth straight week on growing optimism that major producers would strike a deal to freeze output. 

INVENTORY

Crude oil were sharply higher on Wednesday, after data showed that oil supplies in the U.S. rose less than feared last week. Crude oil inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels in the week ended March 11, while the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a supply gain of 1.5 million barrels.

COPPER PRICES RISE ON WEAKER DOLLAR AFTER FED LOWERS RATE EXPECTATIONS

Copper futures rose last week in tandem with other metals as the U.S. Dollar fell,after the federal reserve delivered a more dovish than expected message at its monetary policy meeting.

FUNDAMENTAL

Copper for May delivery hit a daily high of $2.323 a pound, a level not seen since November 4, before giving back gains to end the week at $2.282, down 1.0 cent, or 0.44%. COMEX copper prices rose 1.7 cents, or 1.83%, boosted by a weaker dollar and a more U.S. rate outlook. For the week, COMEX copper prices rose 1.7 cents, or 1.83%, boosted by a weaker dollar and a more dovish U.S. rate outlook.

GOLD FUTURE PRICES EDGED LOWER AFTER STRONG DOLLAR

Market overview

Gold prices edged lower on Monday as policy makers in China at the weekend sought to reassure on the economic outlook, though the central bank chief advised caution on overseas borrowing.

Strategy

For the next week in Gold, traders can use sell on higher levels strategy. If COMEX Gold breaks the level of $1225.00 an ounce on downside, then it can test the levels of $1205.00 - $1185.00 an ounce. Similarly if MCX Gold April futures breaks the level of 29800 then it can test the levels of 29500-29200 on the downside till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 30100 in the same.

Support and Resistance

Major support in COMEX Gold is $1180 and $ 1150

Major resistance in COMEX Gold is $1300 and $1350

Major support in MCX Gold is 28400 and 28000

Major resistance in MCX Gold is 30200 and 30500

SILVER RALLIES AFTER FED SCALES BACK RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS

Market overview

Silver futures held on to strong gains last week, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and indicated just two more rate hikes this year instead of the four expected.

Strategy

For the next week in Silver traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If COMEX Silver breaks the level of $16.15 an ounce on upside, then it can test the levels of $16.65 - $17.35 an ounce. Similarly if MCX Silver May futures break the level of 38600 then it can test the levels of 39100-39600 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 38100 in the same.

Support and Resistance

Major support in COMEX Silver is $14.50 and $13.50

Major resistance in COMEX Silver is $17.50 and $18.50

Major support in MCX Silver is 35900 and 35100

Major resistance in MCX Silver is 39500 and 40500

CRUDE OIL HITS 2016 HIGHS ON HOPES FOR OUTPUT FREEZE

Market overview

Crude oil futures hit fresh highs for 2016 on last week and were set to post gains for a fifth straight week on growing optimism that major producers would strike a deal to freeze output.

Strategy

For the next week in Crude oil, traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If NYMEX Crude oil breaks the level of $42.50 a barrel on up side, then it can test the levels of $43.70 - $44.70 a barrel. Similarly if MCX Crude oil April futures breaks the level of 2850 then it can test the levels of 2950-3050 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 2750 in the same.

Support and Resistance

Major support in NYMEX Crude oil is $35.00 and $31.00

Major resistance in NYMEX Crude is $45.00 and $50.00

Major support in MCX Crude oil is 2500 and 2400

Major resistance in MCX Crude oil is 3100 and 3200

COPPER PRICES RISE ON WEAKER DOLLAR AFTER FED LOWERS RATE EXPECTATIONS

Market overview

Copper futures rose last week in tandem with other metals as the U.S. Dollar fell,after the federal reserve delivered a more dovish than expected message at its monetary policy meeting.

Strategy

For the next week in Copper, traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If COMEX Copper breaks the level of $2.3100 per pound on up side, then it can test the levels of $2.3500-$2.3900 per pound. Similarly if MCX Copper April futures breaks the level of 345.00 then it can test the levels of 355.00-365.00 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 335.00 in the same.

Support and Resistance

Major support in COMEX Copper is $2.1903 and $2.1503

Major resistance in COMEX Copper is $2.4910  and $2.5310

Major support in MCX Copper is 290.00 and 280.00

Major resistance in MCX Copper is 370.00 and 3380.00

NATURAL GAS PRICES REVERSE GAINS AFTER U.S. STORAGE DATA

Market overview

Natural gas futures turned lower  trade on Thursday, reversing gains after data showed U.S. natural gas supplies in storage fell less than expected last week. Natural gas storage stood at 2.478 trillion cubic feet, 40.2% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 32.5% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Strategy

For the next week in Natural gas, traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If NYMEX Natural gas breaks the level of $1.800 per mmbtu on upside, then it can test the levels of $2.080.- $2.340 per mmbtu. Similarly if MCX Natural gas March futures breaks the level of 130.50 then it can test the levels of 139.20-145.20 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 121.00 in the same.

Support and Resistance

Major support in NYMEX Natural gas is $1.700 and $1.500

Major resistance in NYMEX Natural gas is $3.322 and $3.522

Major support in MCX Natural gas is 100.00 and 90.00

Major resistance in MCX Natural gas is 150.00 and 160.00

THE  INDIAN  RUPEE APPRECIATED AS  FED KEPT THE BORROWING RATES UNCHANGED

Market Overview

The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.8 percent in the last week owing to increased selling  of  the  American  currency  by  exporters  and  banks. Moreover,  weakness  in  the  US  Dollar  Index  after  the  US  Federal Reserve kept the borrowing rates unchanged and pointed towards the external risks that can obstruct the growth rate of US.  This acted as a positive factor for the Indian Rupee.

Strategy

For the next week in USDINR, traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If USDINR breaks the level of 67.500 on upside, then it can test the levels of 68.200 – 68.900 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 68.200 in the same.

Support and Resistance

Major support in USDINR is 63.300 and 62.100

Major resistance in USDINR is 70.000 and 71.000

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Nifty Derivative Report, 20th January 2016

Nifty Market Overview:

The Nifty future shut shop at with loss of 125.80 points down by 1.69%. Nifty future decreased by 15525 shares in open interest, and came to a discount of 2.35 from premium of 3.00 earlier. Whereas cost of carry is -42.59% vs 40.76% decreased by 204.50%. On the options front the OI PCR is 0.87 vs 0.84 increased by 3.57%. Whereas the Volume PCR is 0.92 vs 0.75 up by 22.67%. While on the Volatility front the Indian Volatility Index has ended at 20.97% vs 18.43%  up by 13.78%.

 

Option Overview:

  • On the call options front addition of open interest was witnessed in last trading session at strike price of 7400 & 7500.
  • On the put options front we have seen addition of open interest in last trading session at strike price of 7200 & 7100.    

 

OI Chart Analysis:  

From the OI Chart we can see the strike price that witnessed highest addition of open interest in the Januaryr Series. In coming sessions market may trade in a range of 7100 & 7500. On the call option front strike price with the highest open interest i.e. 7400 & 7500 may act as good resistance on the up side whereas on the put option front strike price with the highest open interest i.e.7200 & 7100 may act as a support on the downside.

 

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