Nifty Report and forecast 2nd May 2016

Technically, Nifty on daily charts looking bullish. Nifty traded in tight range of 7800-8000. Unless nifty  does not breaches level of 7800 and sustain below it on closing basis , the probability of recovery from this support mark is high. It is traded above 50 & 100 DMA which indicates chances are very high that it will break above the level of 8000.

Fundamentally also, The Indian market is slightly running ahead of fundamentals and valuation which is not cheap as we have seen Nifty PE ratio is hovering around 22, but they are not extremely expensive. The market is expecting the earnings to improve as well as macroeconomic condition.

Stock specific we expect Zee Entertainment Ltd to go further up. The stock in its intraday chart is about to break out above the major resistance of 418-19. If it manages to move above the level the stock is likely to move till 425. Traders are advised to maintain a stop below 415 to control risk in adverse situation.

Support- 7800,7750,7700

Resistance:-7950,8000,8150

Nifty weekly forecast 02-05-2016 to 06-05-2016

Last week Nifty future was on roller coaster ride as it closed in negative with marginal losses to hit lowest level in more than two weeks. The negative sentiments in the markets was triggered by the Japanese central bank, which held off from expanding monetary stimulus, pulled global stocks lower. Market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was mixed as buying was witnessed in sectors specifically in private banks, realty, metals, cement, and select mid cap stocks etc.  

Macroeconomic data, trend in global markets, investment by foreign institutional investors (FIIs), movement of crude oil prices and next batch of Q4 results of companies like HDFC ltd, Adaniport, Eicher Motors, Hero Moto Corp to be announced will dictate trend of the market in near term.   

Nifty Future gave weekly closing at 7894.80 with marginal losses of 16.35 points.

Technically, in weekly charts Nifty Future is forming revesal Doji candlestick pattern consecutively for two weeks below psychological level of 8000 which suggests indecisiveness for the continuation of the current up trend.  Thus, in near future level of 8000 will act as an immediate resistance and on downside immediate support level is at 7800 levels.  If it breaches its immediate resistance level of 8200 would be the next target and on down side if support is broken correction can be seen till 7700 levels which is a strong support going forward according to gap theory. 

Weekly Nifty Forecast 25-04-2016 to 29-04-2016

Nifty Future gave gap up opening this week ,it hit high of 7984.50 since wholesale prices fell for a 17th straight month in March, declining by an annual 0.85 percent. It traded in tight range between 7985 and 7850,thus formed a doji candlestick pattern on weekly charts, indicating indecisiveness among traders,Overall health of market was indicating that bulls were taking control over bears for the short term up trend of index.

Nifty Future given closing at 7915.10 with the marginal gain of 47.25 points.

Trend in global market, investment by FII and DII , movement of rupee against dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend in near term. Market may remain volatile ahead of expiry of derivative contracts as traders may roll over their position from near to next month contracts .Stock specific movement can be observed as India bulls Housing Finance, India bulls real estate, ACC, ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, Yes Bank etc. will declare their quarter four numbers in upcoming week.

Technically, Nifty future has sustained above its 200 days moving average this week which is lying near the level of 7870 and is facing strong resistance at the level of 8000. Any fall below the 7850 support mark can result in some correction in index till the next support level of 7790, while with the crossing of major resistance of 8000, it may test the level of 8150.

Nifty Report 28th April 2016

Technically, Nifty on daily charts looking bullish. Nifty witnessed volatility due to expiry of future and option contract. However, today nifty tested its important psychological level of 8000 but could not able to sustain above it.  Unless nifty  does not breaches level of 7800 and sustain below it on closing basis, the probability of recovery from this support mark is high.

Fundamentally also, Nifty PE Ratio is hovering around 21.65 although it is not cheap, neither we can consider it expensive and there is room of expansion as we expect corporate earning to deliver near to consensus growth expectation of 14-15 per cent FY 17. Nifty P/B ratio is 3.24, only a move above 4.00 could be consider as overbought. So no concern in that front also.

 

Support- 7800,7750,7700

Resistance:-7950,8000,8150

 

Weekly Bullion Report 21st March 2016

FUNDAMENTAL MARKET OVERVIEW

GOLD FUTURE PRICES EDGED LOWER AFTER STRONG DOLLAR

Gold Future prices edged lower on last week, as a recovery in the U.S. dollar and stronger global equity markets dented the metal’s safe-haven appeal, prompting market players to take profits after a sharp rally the day before.

FUNDAMENTALS

Gold for April delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange slumped $10.70, or 0.85%, to end of week at $1,254.30 a troy ounce. For the week, gold prices dipped $2.20, or 0.39%, the fourth losing week in five. 

CRUDE OIL HITS 2016 HIGHS ON HOPES FOR OUTPUT FREEZE

Crude oil futures hit fresh highs for 2016 on last week and were set to post gains for a fifth straight week on growing optimism that major producers would strike a deal to freeze output. 

INVENTORY

Crude oil were sharply higher on Wednesday, after data showed that oil supplies in the U.S. rose less than feared last week. Crude oil inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels in the week ended March 11, while the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a supply gain of 1.5 million barrels.

COPPER PRICES RISE ON WEAKER DOLLAR AFTER FED LOWERS RATE EXPECTATIONS

Copper futures rose last week in tandem with other metals as the U.S. Dollar fell,after the federal reserve delivered a more dovish than expected message at its monetary policy meeting.

FUNDAMENTAL

Copper for May delivery hit a daily high of $2.323 a pound, a level not seen since November 4, before giving back gains to end the week at $2.282, down 1.0 cent, or 0.44%. COMEX copper prices rose 1.7 cents, or 1.83%, boosted by a weaker dollar and a more U.S. rate outlook. For the week, COMEX copper prices rose 1.7 cents, or 1.83%, boosted by a weaker dollar and a more dovish U.S. rate outlook.

GOLD FUTURE PRICES EDGED LOWER AFTER STRONG DOLLAR

Market overview

Gold prices edged lower on Monday as policy makers in China at the weekend sought to reassure on the economic outlook, though the central bank chief advised caution on overseas borrowing.

Strategy

For the next week in Gold, traders can use sell on higher levels strategy. If COMEX Gold breaks the level of $1225.00 an ounce on downside, then it can test the levels of $1205.00 - $1185.00 an ounce. Similarly if MCX Gold April futures breaks the level of 29800 then it can test the levels of 29500-29200 on the downside till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 30100 in the same.

Support and Resistance

Major support in COMEX Gold is $1180 and $ 1150

Major resistance in COMEX Gold is $1300 and $1350

Major support in MCX Gold is 28400 and 28000

Major resistance in MCX Gold is 30200 and 30500

SILVER RALLIES AFTER FED SCALES BACK RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS

Market overview

Silver futures held on to strong gains last week, after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged and indicated just two more rate hikes this year instead of the four expected.

Strategy

For the next week in Silver traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If COMEX Silver breaks the level of $16.15 an ounce on upside, then it can test the levels of $16.65 - $17.35 an ounce. Similarly if MCX Silver May futures break the level of 38600 then it can test the levels of 39100-39600 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 38100 in the same.

Support and Resistance

Major support in COMEX Silver is $14.50 and $13.50

Major resistance in COMEX Silver is $17.50 and $18.50

Major support in MCX Silver is 35900 and 35100

Major resistance in MCX Silver is 39500 and 40500

CRUDE OIL HITS 2016 HIGHS ON HOPES FOR OUTPUT FREEZE

Market overview

Crude oil futures hit fresh highs for 2016 on last week and were set to post gains for a fifth straight week on growing optimism that major producers would strike a deal to freeze output.

Strategy

For the next week in Crude oil, traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If NYMEX Crude oil breaks the level of $42.50 a barrel on up side, then it can test the levels of $43.70 - $44.70 a barrel. Similarly if MCX Crude oil April futures breaks the level of 2850 then it can test the levels of 2950-3050 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 2750 in the same.

Support and Resistance

Major support in NYMEX Crude oil is $35.00 and $31.00

Major resistance in NYMEX Crude is $45.00 and $50.00

Major support in MCX Crude oil is 2500 and 2400

Major resistance in MCX Crude oil is 3100 and 3200

COPPER PRICES RISE ON WEAKER DOLLAR AFTER FED LOWERS RATE EXPECTATIONS

Market overview

Copper futures rose last week in tandem with other metals as the U.S. Dollar fell,after the federal reserve delivered a more dovish than expected message at its monetary policy meeting.

Strategy

For the next week in Copper, traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If COMEX Copper breaks the level of $2.3100 per pound on up side, then it can test the levels of $2.3500-$2.3900 per pound. Similarly if MCX Copper April futures breaks the level of 345.00 then it can test the levels of 355.00-365.00 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 335.00 in the same.

Support and Resistance

Major support in COMEX Copper is $2.1903 and $2.1503

Major resistance in COMEX Copper is $2.4910  and $2.5310

Major support in MCX Copper is 290.00 and 280.00

Major resistance in MCX Copper is 370.00 and 3380.00

NATURAL GAS PRICES REVERSE GAINS AFTER U.S. STORAGE DATA

Market overview

Natural gas futures turned lower  trade on Thursday, reversing gains after data showed U.S. natural gas supplies in storage fell less than expected last week. Natural gas storage stood at 2.478 trillion cubic feet, 40.2% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 32.5% above the five-year average for this time of year.

Strategy

For the next week in Natural gas, traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If NYMEX Natural gas breaks the level of $1.800 per mmbtu on upside, then it can test the levels of $2.080.- $2.340 per mmbtu. Similarly if MCX Natural gas March futures breaks the level of 130.50 then it can test the levels of 139.20-145.20 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 121.00 in the same.

Support and Resistance

Major support in NYMEX Natural gas is $1.700 and $1.500

Major resistance in NYMEX Natural gas is $3.322 and $3.522

Major support in MCX Natural gas is 100.00 and 90.00

Major resistance in MCX Natural gas is 150.00 and 160.00

THE  INDIAN  RUPEE APPRECIATED AS  FED KEPT THE BORROWING RATES UNCHANGED

Market Overview

The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.8 percent in the last week owing to increased selling  of  the  American  currency  by  exporters  and  banks. Moreover,  weakness  in  the  US  Dollar  Index  after  the  US  Federal Reserve kept the borrowing rates unchanged and pointed towards the external risks that can obstruct the growth rate of US.  This acted as a positive factor for the Indian Rupee.

Strategy

For the next week in USDINR, traders can use buy on lower levels strategy. If USDINR breaks the level of 67.500 on upside, then it can test the levels of 68.200 – 68.900 on the up side till the end of the week. One can trade by keeping SL of 68.200 in the same.

Support and Resistance

Major support in USDINR is 63.300 and 62.100

Major resistance in USDINR is 70.000 and 71.000

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