Weekly derivative market report 06h May 2016– 13th May 2016

Nifty Overview:

Nifty index closed at 7814.90 with the gain 79.45 points 1.03 % up. The Nifty May future finally settles with gain of 70.3 points or 0.91% up at 7830.55 and decreased 1322250 shares in the open Interest. The Nifty future came to the premium of 15.65 from 24.8 premium earlier, whereas cost of carry is 12.34 from 12.00 earlier up by 2.81%. Nifty future has closed at 7830.55 and now next logical resistance is at 8000 and 8200, and good support near 7700 and 7500 levels.

Nifty Snap:

 

Sentiment Indicator Nifty:

 

Particulars

13 May 16

6 May 16

% Change

Nifty Spot

7814.90

7735.45

1.03

Nifty Fut.(May)

7830.55

7760.25

0.91

Nifty CoC (%)

12.34

12.00

2.81

Open Interest

16286400

17608650.00

-7.51

Volume

211856

145857.00

45.25

 

Sentiment Indicator Bank Nifty:

 

Particulars

13 May 16

6 May 16

% Change

Bank Nifty Spot

16716.90

16296.60

2.58

Bank Nifty Fut. (May)

16738.1

16378.70

2.19

Bank Nifty CoC (%)

19.47

12.00

62.23

Open Interest

1714470

1679700.00

2.07

Volume

107763

75301.00

43.11

 

Bank Nifty Overview:

 Bank Nifty index closed at 16716.90 with the gain of 420.3 points or 2.58% up. The Bank Nifty May future finally settles with gain of 359.4 points or 2.19% up at 16738.10 and increased by 34770 shares in the open interest. The Bank Nifty future came to the premium of 21.2 from 82.1 premium earlier, whereas cost of carry is 19.47 vs. 12.00 up by 62.23%. Bank Nifty futures has closed at 16738.10 now next logical resistance is at 17050 and 17300 levels, and good support near 16500 and 16250 levels.

 

Particulars

13 May 16

6 May 16

% Change

CNX IT Spot

11030.70

10887.00

1.32

CNX IT Fut. (May)

11045

10924.00

1.11

CNX IT CoC (%)

19.04

11.32

68.24

Open Interest

20115

19440.00

3.47

Volume

84

115.00

-26.96


Sentiment Indicator CNX IT:

 CNX IT Overview:

 The CNX IT Index closed at 11030.70 with the gain of 143.7 points or 1.32 % up. The CNX IT May future finally settles with gain of 121 points 1.11% up at 11045 and increased by 675 shares in the open interest. The CNX IT future came to a premium 14.3 from premium 37 earlier, whereas cost of carry is 19.04 vs. 11.32 up by 68.24. The CNX IT future has closed at 11045 and now next logical resistance is at 11250 and 11500 level, and good support near 10700 and 10500 levels.

OPTION SNAP:



 

On the call options front addition of open interest was witnessed in last trading session at strike price of 8000 & 8100.On the put options front we have seen addition of open interest in last trading session at strike price of 7700 & 7600.

 

 OI Chart Analysis: From the OI Chart we can see the strike price that witnessed highest addition of open interest in the May Series. In coming sessions market may trade in a range of 7600 & 8100. On the call option front strike price with the highest open interest i.e. 8000 & 8100 may act as good resistance on the up side whereas on the put option front strike price with the highest open interest i.e.7700 & 7600 may act as a support on the downside. 

Nifty Report and forecast 5th May 2016

Nifty Future is showing lack of downside momentum as market failed to move lower in its multiple attempt after breaking below the intraday low. After a sharp fall early this week this price pattern is encouraging for traders with bullish view. However, lack of momentum itself does not ensure trend reversal and thus price action itself needs to provide confirmation.For short term trend reversal the confirmation will comes only if market sustain above the level of 7800 mark. And a move above 8000 to consider that market resumes its medium term up trend.

Today's trading session Nifty bounced back from slightly above the level of 7700 mark, where we see a gap exists in daily chart during last month. A gap being the imbalance of demand and supply offer important clue regarding support and resistance. We expect the level around 7700 to play a pivotal role for the market direction going forward.

It seems that market is taking time to evaluate how valuation stands out during earning season. Earning so far, have been decent. One surprise move up is likely to come from banking stocks once the earning session will be completed as those being under stressed asset situation, is start showing resilience in its numbers. That could be the next trigger for the market along with the monsoon.

Stock specific we believe if market bounces off the support and starts a rally those stock showing significant strength by holding around its relative high, despite of recent market correction will outperform. One such stock is BATA India ltd, The stock in its daily chart is in strong uptrend. If it manages to move above the level of 575 the stock is likely to move till 600. Traders are advised to maintain a stop below 565 to control risk in adverse situation.

Weekly Technical Report on Nifty

Market Overview : 

Nifty future this week shifted down from the earlier range of 7800-8000 to 7700-7800. Which was in line with the expectation as in its weekly chart a Doji pattern was visible in last week. After a strong rally last two month the pattern shows sign of indecision. However, as long as Nifty manages to stay above the level of 7700 it is prudent to take the pattern as short term pause of the momentum rather than a signal of major decline.

This week Nifty future remained extremely volatile most of the trading session before closing with a fall of one and half per cent. Although it threatened to breach below the key support around 7700,finally it manages to recover to stay above this level. Which may encourage buying interest in the market in coming week. Any move above 7800 should be viewed as a sign of end of short term correction and market is likely to resume its medium term uptrend.

Upcoming Events: 

Macroeconomic data, Inflation Rate year on year, Manufacturing production year on year, Industrial production year on year, Balance of Trade for the month of April and next batch of Q4 results of companies like HUL ltd, Dr Reddys Lab, Glen mark to be announced will dictate trend of the market in near term.

 

WEEKLY GAINERS        
           
SECURITY NAME LAST CLOSE (RS.) CURRENT CLOSE (RS.) GAIN %    
V-Guard Industries Ltd. 947.75 1265.15 33.49    
Eros International Media Ltd. 184.75 217.5 17.73    
CCL Products India Ltd. 193.1 226 17.04    
Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd. 67.65 76.3 12.79    
KRBL Ltd. 226.95 255.85 12.73    
           
           
WEEKLY LOSERS        
           
SECURITY NAME PREVIOUS CLOSE CURRENT CLOSE (RS.) LOSS %    
Dishman Pharmaceuticals & Chemicals Ltd. 339.2 153.3 -54.81    
ABG Shipyard Ltd. 45.55 30.8 -32.38    
Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd. 238.2 194.55 -18.32    
Amtek Auto Ltd. 39.95 32.7 -18.15    
Ruchi Soya Industries Ltd. 28.55 23.95 -16.11    
           
           
FII INVESTMENTS – WEEKLY (IN CRORES)      
           
DATE BUY VALUE SELL VALUE NET VALUE    
5-May-16 3,719.36 3,750.19 -30.83     
3-May-16 3,577.15 4,324.83 -747.68     
2-May-16 2,986.67 2,637.70 348.97     
29-Apr-16 4,422.84 4,438.93 -16.09     
           
           
           
           
MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTMENTS – WEEKLY (IN CRORES)    
           
DATE BUY VALUE SELL VALUE NET VALUE    
4-May-16 1,031.50 888 143.50     
3-May-16 977 894.7 82.30     
2-May-16 589 573.8 15.20     
29-Apr-16 98.3 79.1 19.20     
28-Apr-16 1,365.50 1,687.00 -321.50     
27-Apr-16 1,139.80 879.3 260.50     
           
WEEKLY SECTORIAL INDICES          
           
INDICES OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE  
NIFTY BANK 16614 16719.4 16186.25 16296.6  
NIFTY NEXT 50 19315.65 19764.95 19058.9 19256.35  
NIFTY 500 6569.55 6642.85 6463.7 6504.55  
NIFTY IT 11181.15 11181.15 10846.65 10887  
NIFTY MIDCAP 100 13165.1 13381.75 12917.3 13001.85  
NIFTY 100 7939.9 8024.8 7803.05 7859.45  
           
           
           
INDEX PRESENT CLOSE CHANGE % CHANGE    
SENSEX 25,228.50 -378.12 -1.477    
Nifty 7733.45 -113.80 -1.45    
NIKKEI 16,106.72 29.22 0.18    
HANG SANG 20,109.87 -957.18 -4.54    
CAC
(Data till 05:05p.m.)
4,269.53 -287.83 -6.32    
FTSE
(Data till 05:05 p.m.)
6,065.00 -177.00 -2.84    
           
           
NIFTY FUTURE        
WEEK OPEN WEEK HIGH WEEK LOW WEEK CLOSE CHANGE % CHANGE
7858..2 7949.95 7700.95 7760.25 -113.80 -1.45

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Nifty Report and forecast 3rd May 2016

Technically, in weekly charts Nifty Future is forming reversal Doji candlestick pattern consecutively for two weeks below psychological level of 8000. Today's trading session Nifty breached the important support mark of 7800 and gave closing below the same. So correction can be seen till 7700 levels which is a strong support going forward according to gap theory.

Fundamentally, the Indian market is slightly running ahead of fundamentals and valuation which is not cheap as we have seen Nifty PE ratio is hovering around 22, but they are not extremely expensive. The market is expecting the earnings to improve as well as macroeconomic condition.

Stock specific we expect Apollo Hospital to go further down. The stock in its intraday chart is consolidated above the support mark of 1294. If it manages to  breach the level of 1294  the stock is likely to move till 1280 . Traders are advised to maintain a stop below 1305 to control risk in adverse situation.

Support- 7750,7700,7650

Resistance:- 7900,7950,8000