Market Overview

Market Overview: Nifty Future gave positive opening but could not sustain above its resistance of 8660 level which was also the retracement level of 61.80% of the previous fall and fell from there to close at lowest level in more than a week due to Finance Minister said that government is unlikely income tax notices directing payment of Minimum Alternate Taxation (MAT) by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). Market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was negative. Broad based selling was seen across the board led by private banks, financials, pharma and IT stocks. Nifty April Future gave closing at 8638.85 with weekly net loss of 172.60points. Technically, trend of Nifty Future in short term is down and expected to trade in a range of 8570 - 8850 levels. Next important resistance is at psychological level of 9000 mark while with the breach of its support level of 8570, some more corrections can be seen till 8430 level. Upcoming Events: Market may take cues from the Q4 results of companies viz: HCL Tech, Wipro,YesBank, HindZinc, HDFC Bank,Ultratech. Developments during the second part of budget session of Parliament will be closely watched.The second part of the budget session will start after a month-long recess from 20 April 2015 to conclude on 8 May 2015. Stock Recommendations: BPCL Futures Sell Below- 795 Stop loss- 820 Targets - 770,755 Overall trend of the stock is bullish and is forming a reversal pattern in short term charts at the higher level, it is likely to show correction in near term with the breach of its pattern and support level of 795, it is taking resistance of 200 days moving average at 815. One may expect the targets of 770 and 755 in it with the strict stop loss of 820. APLLTD Buy Above- 496 Stop loss – 474 Targets – 518,530 Primary trend of the stock is bullish and last week it traded in range, further it is sustaining above its 50 and 200 days moving averages, which indicates that the stock may continue the bull run in upcoming session also with the breakout of its resistance mark of 496, One may keep the targets of 518 in the stock with the stop loss of 474. TATAMTRDVR Futures Sell Below- 340 Stop loss- 347 Targets - 333,328 The stock is trading in range from the last few week and is sustaining above its major support level of 340, in near term stock may show downside move with the breach of its support level, where one may initiate the short position in the stock below the level of 347 and can keep stop loss of 347, targets for the stock is 333 and 328.

Commodity update for the week

Last week MCX Gold June futures started the week with sideways movement and traded on the lower levels for the initial part of the week. It made a low of 26387 during the initial part of week, but in the later part of week, we saw a moderate buying from lower levels due to negative U.S. Data and uncertainty over Greece’s bailout negotiations with its creditors remained in focus. Sentiment remained damage after ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded the country's sovereign credit outlook to negative from credit-watch negative. Worries of a Greek default on its sovereign debt can increase the safe-haven appeal in bullion. COMEX Gold prices sustained above its major support level of $1180 per ounce for the entire week and tested the level of $1209 on the upside. After the disappointing U.S. Data on Thursday Gold prices edged higher on Friday. Uncertainty over the timing of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve and weakness in the dollar could push up gold prices as bullion is seen as a safe-haven asset. Over all COMEX gold had given range bound movement in last week, but in the this week we can see buying in it. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose by 1.79 tonnes to 736.08 tonnes with a marginal gain of 0.24% week on week basis till Thursday. Silver MCX May futures prices also followed the trend of gold and witnessed sideways movement for entire week. Silver MCX May futures traded in range of 35900-36800 for the entire week. COMEX Silver also sustaining above the psychological level of $16 per ounce. Gold prices was higher in Asia on festive demand concern and raise in import tariff value kept the prices on upside. The positive demand came ahead of Akshaya Tritaya festival as it is considered auspicious to buy gold. Apart from sustained festival season buying by jewellers, a firming trend in global markets as worries of a Greek default on its sovereign debt boosted demand for the precious metal as a safe-haven. Indian Govt. had raised import tariff value of Gold from $385 per 10 grams to $388 per 10 grams. The import tariff value is the base price at which customs duty is determined to prevent under-invoicing. It is revised on a fortnightly basis taking into account global prices. A sharp slide in Indian demand could remove a key area of support for global gold prices & it can witness good downfall. According to the Air Intelligence Unit (AIU) of the customs department of India, officials seized 30 gold biscuits worth Rs 95 lakh and 12 gold bars valued at Rs 80 lakh from the passengers who arrived from Abu Dhabi and Muscat respectively. Customs officials have foiled a number of bids to smuggle gold from gulf nations and Singapore through airports in the southern region, especially Chennai, Kochi, Kozhikode and Mangaluru, in the past few weeks and have seized large quantity of the precious metal. This week, we can expect Bullish movement in Gold MCX June futures & it can test the levels of 27100-27300 till the end of week. Similarly Silver is also looking bullish and MCX Silver May futures can test the levels of 38000-38500 on the upper side till the end of the week. For this week, major U.S. data such as Unemployment Claims and Core Durable Goods Orders coupled with physical demand in Asian region will further provide direction to the bullion.

Market overview and tips for the week

Market Overview:

Nifty gave positive opening and extended its previous week’s rally to close at highest level in four weeks getting boost from positive global markets, global credit rating agency Moody's Investors Service raised India's credit rating outlook to positive from stable and commercial banks reducing their lending rates to benefit the end consumers. Market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was positive. Broad based buying was seen across the board led by banking, financials, infrastructure, Telecom and mid cap stocks.

Nifty  gave closing at 8811.45 with weekly gains of 178.35 points.

Technically, trend of Nifty  in short term is up; however it is expected to face strong resistance around the levels of 8600 – 8650 as it is also the retracement level of 61.80% of the recent fall and trade in a range of 8600 - 8850 levels. Next important resistance is at 9000 level while with the breach of its support level of 8600, some more corrections can be seen till 8450 level.

Upcoming Events:

WPI and CPI inflation numbers for March 2015 have been announced this week, which will play a crucial role for deciding market trend in near term.

Stock-specific action will be seen as Indian companies start announcing their earnings for the quarter ended 31 March 2015 in the coming week.

Trend in global markets, investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), the movement of rupee against the dollar and crude oil price movement will dictate trend on the bourses in the near term.

Stock Recommendations:

BUY TATACHEM IN NSE CASH ABOVE 458 WITH SL OF 446 TGT 470,478

After showing correction from the higher level, now stock is trading in short term recovery phase, it is likely to continue the upside move in near term with the crossing of the resistance level of 458 as the stock is managing to sustain above the level of 458. One may get the targets of 470,478 in the stock with the stop loss of 446.

BUY SSLT IN NSE CASH ABOVE 204 WIT SL OF 194 TGT 214,220

It is looking weak on charts however it is accumulating above its major support level and recently has given breakout of its previous major resistance level, now it has next resistance at the level of 214; it is likely to experience fresh buying with the crossing of mentioned level, where one may keep the targets of 214,220 in the stock with the stop loss of 194.

SELL SIEMENS FUT BELOW 1442 WITH SL OF 1462 TGT 1422,1410:

The stock is in bull run and is forming a reversal pattern in short term charts, it is likely to show correction with the breach of the support level of 1442, where one may initiate the short position in it for the targets of 1422, while stop loss can be placed at 1462.

BUY BHARARTFORGE IN NSE CASH ABOVE 1350 WITH SL OF 1300 TGT 1400,1425

Primary trend of the stock is bullish and is consolidating at the higher level after showing correction. It is expected to continue the bull run with the crossing of the resistance level of 1350, as the stock is sustaining above its 200 and 50 days moving averages. One may initiate the long position above the mentioned level for the targets of 1400 and with the strict stop loss of 1300.

BUY TVSMOTORS IN NSE CASH ABOVE 259 WITH SL OF 247 TGT 271,280

The stock is showing correction since past few sessions and also sustaining above lower trend line support level. Currently it has formed reversal pattern on the short term charts and trading below the resistance level of 259.Breakout of its resistance level may show recovery in it where traders can expect targets of 271 and 280 while major support of 247 can be placed as technical stop loss.

Market choppy ahead of RBI policy today

Market Overview:

Market given gap up opening and later traded with the positive momentum throughout the week as a result of short covering. It continued positive momentum on the last day of weekly trading session, led by gain in Banking and Pharma sectors. Nifty Future shut shop at 8633.10 with the net gain of 198.20 points after giving closing in red for the last three consecutive weeks.

Market may rebound further with the crossing of its crucial resistance mark of 8660 as it has showed strong pull back from its crucial support level of 8350 and is sustaining below the level of 8660 ,while support for the Nifty future is at 8420, with the breach of this it may correct further till the levels of 8170.

Market is choppy ahead of Crucial bi-monthly monetary policy announcement which is being keenly watched. 

Upcoming Events:

1. The Reserve Bank of India will declare the decision on interest rates in its first bi-monthly Monetary Policy for the FY 2015-2016 on Tuesday, 7th April  2015. It had cut the rate by 25 basis points in an unscheduled monetary policy review on 4 March 2015.

2. The government will unveil industrial production data for February 2015 on Friday, 10th April 2015.

3. The next major trigger for the Indian markets is Q4 results of India Inc. The Q4 results season starts during second week of April 2015.

Stock Recommendations:

BUY DHFL IN NSE CASH ABOVE 475 WITH SL OF 459 TGTS 491/500

Overall trend of the stock is bullish and after experiencing correction from the higher level, now the stock is accumulating below the resistance mark of 475, further the stock is sustaining below the downward sloping trend line and is likely to continue the northward journey with the crossing of the resistance level; as it is managing to sustain above its 50 and 200 days moving averages with the RSI of 41.95. One may initiate the long position in the stock with the crossing of the 475 and can expect the targets of 491 and 500 in the stock, Support of 459 can be placed as stop loss in it.

BUY IOC IN NSE CASH ABOVE 375.50 WITH SL OF 365 TGTS 386/395

Primary trend of the stock is bullish and after giving breakout of its range bound movement, it is forming continuation pattern in short term charts, it is likely to continue the positive movement with the breakout of the pattern at the levels of 375.50 ; as the stock is managing to trade above its 50 and 200 days moving averages with the RSI of 66.65, one may expect the targets of 386 in the stock if it manages to sustain above the immediate support level of 365.

BUY ADANIPORTS IN NSE CASH ABOVE 317 WITH SL OF 302 TGT 332/342 

After experiencing correction from the higher level, the stock is accumulating below the resistance mark of 317, further the stock is sustaining above its major support level and is trading above its 200 days moving averages with the RSI of 46.71, it is likely to show fresh buying with the crossing of the resistance mark of 317, where one may initiate the long position in it for the targets of 332/342 and with the stop loss of 302.

Fundamental & Technical Outlook on Commodities:

Precious metal: Gold price fell in Asia on Thursday as investors braced for a U.S. jobs report expected to set the timing for the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates this year as widely expected, while news of a nuclear deal with Iran was being assessed. U.S. markets are shut on Friday, but data on non-farm payrolls will be released. Investors focused on Friday’s U.S. employment report, which was forecast to show a gain of 245,000 jobs in March, following an increase of 295,000 in February.

Over all, MCX Gold June future is in consolidation and sustaining in range from the last week. For the coming week 25700/25500 will act as a major support whereas 26500/26800 will act as a major resistance level in MCX Gold June future. For the next week in MCX Gold, traders can use sell on higher level strategy, if MCX Gold June future sustains below the levels of 26200 then it could test the levels 26000/25700.

 Technically, MCX Silver May futures is in consolidation and sustaining on lower levels. So for the coming week 41500/43000 will act as a major resistance levels where as 38000/36600 will act as major support in MCX Silver May futures. For the next week in MCX Silver futures, traders can use sell on higher level strategy, if MCX Silver May futures sustains below 37000 then it could test the levels of 36000/34700.

Energy: Crude oil fell the last session while was extending its losses on Tuesday as markets continue to talk about the finalization of the deal between Iran and Western countries over its co called nuclear program. On late Thursday, details emerged that Iran and Western powers had reached a deal on the framework of a preliminary Iranian nuclear pact before a final agreement could be reached in late-June.

"This framework would cut off the pathway Iran could take to develop a nuclear weapon," U.S. president Barack Obama said at a news conference outside the White House. "This deal is not based on trust, it is based on unprecedented verification."

For the coming week 2800/2600 will act as major support levels whereas 3200/3380 will act as a major resistance in MCX Crude oil April futures. For the next week, trader can use sell on higher level strategy, if MCX Crude April future sustain below 2950 levels then it could test the levels 2810.

Base Metal: Copper prices were little changed on Thursday, as market players looked ahead to the release of key U.S. employment data for further indications on the strength of the economy and the future path of monetary policy. Futures were likely to find support at $2.709, the low from April 1, and resistance at $2.792, the high from March 30. Official data on Wednesday showed that China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index inched up to 50.1 this month, while the China HSBC (LONDON:) final manufacturing PMI was revised up to 49.6 in March. MCX Copper April future is in bearish trend and sustaining on lower levels. So for the coming week 388/405 will act as a major resistance levels where as 345/327 will act as major support in MCX Copper. For the next week trader may follow sell on higher levels strategy, if MCX Copper April future sustain below 372 levels then it could test the level of 360/345.