CapitalVia
CapitalVia Research Desk ·
Data explainer · 9 Nov 2026

Health costs vs pay · India 2027

Medical costs will rise 10.1% in 2027. Salaries will rise 9.1%.

Aon's new medical-trend report puts India's healthcare cost growth at 10.1% next year. Aon's own pay survey of 1,200+ employers expects a 9.1% salary increase. For the second year running, the cost of getting treated is outrunning the raise.

10.1%

Projected rise in India's medical costs, 2027 (Aon)

Scroll

Three numbers to hold side by side

Per cent change. Scale 0–12%.

Medical costs, 2027 projection10.1%
Salary increase, 2027 projection9.1%
Retail inflation (CPI), Sept 20265.5%
PunchlinePayContext

Aon's medical trend is the expected rise in the per-unit cost of employer-sponsored medical plans. Aon measures it against a general-inflation assumption of 4.0% for 2027 (IMF, April 2026); India's actual CPI inflation in September 2026 was 5.54%.

The gap is narrowing. It has not closed.

Medical cost growth vs salary increase, India. Scale 0–12%.

2026 · actual

Medical costs11.5%
Salary increase9.0%
Gap: 2.5 points

2027 · projected

Medical costs10.1%
Salary increase9.1%
Gap: 1.0 point
2.5 → 1.0

Percentage points by which medical cost growth beats the average raise. Aon says the slowdown reflects easing cost pressures, "not that total costs are decreasing".

India sits above the world average

Projected medical cost growth in 2027. Scale 0–15%.

Singapore14.7%
India10.1%
Asia-Pacific average9.7%
United States9.5%
Global average9.0%
China6.0%
Japan3.1%
IndiaOther marketsRegional outlier

China (−1.8 pts) and India (−1.4 pts) drive most of the Asia-Pacific slowdown, from 11.3% in 2026 to 9.7% in 2027. Globally the rate eases from 9.8% to 9.0%.

What a 1-point gap does over five years

Illustration only: ₹1,00,000 compounded at each 2027 rate for five years, assuming the rates hold.

A ₹1 lakh medical bill
₹1.62 lakh
at 10.1% a year
₹1,61,784 · estimate
A ₹1 lakh salary
₹1.55 lakh
at 9.1% a year
₹1,54,570 · estimate

How Asia-Pacific employers plan to respond in 2027

95%
wellness programmes
70%
plan-design changes
55%
flexible benefits

Share of employers Aon expects to use each approach to manage medical plan costs (Asia-Pacific). Cardiovascular disease, ENT/lung disorders and cancer remain the leading drivers of claims.

Why it matters

If you are salaried: a 9% raise does not keep pace with a 10% rise in treatment costs. Check whether your employer plan's sum insured has moved since you joined — many have not.

If you run a company: benefits budgets will grow faster than payroll in 2027. Aon finds most employers reaching for wellness programmes and plan redesign before cutting cover.

Sources

  1. Aon, 2027 Global Medical Trend Rates Report (released 12 Oct 2026; India coverage 3–5 Nov 2026), country table p.18 — India gross medical trend 11.5% (2026), 10.1% (2027); general inflation 4.1% and 4.0%; Asia-Pacific 11.3% → 9.7%; global 9.8% → 9.0%. assets.aon.com/-/media/files/aon/reports/2026/2027-global-medical-trend-rates-report.pdf
  2. Aon, Annual Salary Increase and Turnover Survey India 2026-27, press release 14 Oct 2026 — actual salary increase 9.0% (2026), projected 9.1% (2027); 1,200+ organisations, 45 industries. aon.com/apac/in-the-press/asia-newsroom/2026/
  3. MoSPI/NSO, Press Release of Consumer Price Index for September 2026 (12 Oct 2026) — all-India CPI inflation 5.54%. mospi.gov.in
  4. Aon APAC press release, 12 Oct 2026 — employer responses (95% / 70% / 55%) and leading claim drivers.

Which figures are estimates

Aon's 10.1% (medical) and 9.1% (salary) for 2027 are survey-based projections, not recorded outcomes; the 11.5% and 9.0% for 2026 are Aon's reported figures for the current year. The 4.0% inflation figure is the IMF's April 2026 projection for 2027 used by Aon. The ₹1 lakh five-year figures are CapitalVia's arithmetic from those rates and assume the rates hold; they are illustrations, not forecasts. "Medical costs" means Aon's medical trend rate for employer-sponsored medical plans, not a household price index.

A data explainer for general education. Not investment, tax or legal advice.

© 2026 CapitalVia Global Research Limited · capitalvia.com/insights

Share this storyWhatsAppXLinkedIn