The RBI raised its rate to 5.5%. It expects inflation of 5.8%.
India's first rate hike in 3 years 8 months takes the repo rate to 5.50%. The RBI's own forecast puts inflation at 5.8% for October 2026 to June 2027.
CapitalVia Research Desk ·
Data story
18 Sep 2026
18 Sep 2026
There is no single inflation rate.
India's retail inflation was 4.82% in August 2026. Almost no household actually paid that. It is the midpoint of twelve very different numbers.
The gap inside the average
13.8percentage points
Between the slowest and fastest line in the CPI basket last month: Health +1.34% against Personal care & jewellery +15.17%. Same month, same country — an 11× difference.
Year-on-year inflation, by spending division
All-India combined, August 2026 (provisional)
Personal care, social protection & misc.
15.17%
Restaurants & accommodation
8.38%
Food & beverages
5.66%
Paan, tobacco & intoxicants
4.71%
Transport
4.60%
Education services
3.73%
Clothing & footwear
3.56%
Furnishings & household upkeep
2.68%
Housing, water, electricity & fuel
2.61%
Information & communication
2.01%
Recreation, sport & culture
1.74%
Health
1.34%
Dashed line = All-India headline, 4.82%
−4.38%
What buying a vehicle cost year-on-year — cheaper than last August. In the same month, eating out ran +8.38%. Your inflation depends entirely on what is in your basket.
If you're salaried
A household that eats out, drives and buys gold ran well above 4.82%. One whose money goes on rent, school fees and doctors' bills ran below it. Benchmark your hike against your basket, not the headline.
If you're a founder
Your cost line isn't the headline either. Transport services for goods rose 14.64% — the sharpest jump in the release. Freight, not wages, is where many small-business margins went.
If you set budgets
Education +3.73% and housing +2.61% are running below headline; restaurants and travel spend +8.38% is running above. One cost-inflation assumption across all heads will be wrong in both directions.
+107.1%
Silver jewellery, YoY
+48.3%
Onion, YoY
−31.1%
Tomato, YoY
+14.6%
Goods freight, YoY
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