The RBI raised its rate to 5.5%. It expects inflation of 5.8%.
India's first rate hike in 3 years 8 months takes the repo rate to 5.50%. The RBI's own forecast puts inflation at 5.8% for October 2026 to June 2027.
Indian startups closed 7% more funding rounds in January–June 2026 than a year earlier, and raised 9% less money. The median late-stage cheque fell 68%, to $10 Mn. And one round — CRED’s $900 Mn — was about a sixth of everything raised in the half.
01 · Stage by stage
Funding, deal count and median cheque size by stage, H1 2026, with the change against H1 2025. The money left the top of the market; the activity moved to the middle.
| Stage | Raised | YoY | Deals | YoY | Median | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Late-stage | $2.2 Bn | −27% | 66 | −4% | $10 Mn | −68% |
| Growth-stage | $2.3 Bn | +15% | 190 | +33% | $6 Mn | −25% |
| Seed | $478 Mn | +18% | n/d | marginally down | $1 Mn | flat |
02 · The cheque
Median deal size by stage, H1 2026. Seed held its ground; everything above it compressed.
Bars show the H1 2026 median; the year-ago level shown alongside is derived from the published percentage change
03 · Concentration
CRED raised $900 Mn in H1 2026. Set against the $5.2 Bn raised by all 501 deals, that single round is roughly one rupee in six of everything Indian startups raised in six months.
Share of all H1 2026 funding
Rounds of $100 Mn or more
Mega-rounds fell by roughly two-thirds year on year
04 · Sectors
Funding by sector, H1 2026, with year-on-year change. Fintech still raises the most money; AI is the only large category multiplying.
05 · Geography
Funding by city, H1 2026. Delhi NCR fell 39% year on year; Bengaluru alone accounted for more than the next two cities combined.
These three cities together account for about 81% of all H1 2026 funding
06 · So what
The odds of getting a term sheet improved; the size of it did not. Plan a round at the median, not at the headline deal you read about, and assume a longer path to the next one — late-stage capital contracted 27%.
Startup pay and ESOP maths sit downstream of this. Fewer mega-rounds and smaller cheques mean tighter hiring budgets and longer horizons to liquidity — but 501 funded companies is more employers, not fewer.
M&A held flat at 52 deals while valuations compressed. For an acquirer, this is the cheapest the same asset has been in three years; for a partner, more startups than ever are open to a distribution deal over a round.
India's first rate hike in 3 years 8 months takes the repo rate to 5.50%. The RBI's own forecast puts inflation at 5.8% for October 2026 to June 2027.
Net inflow into government small-savings schemes hit ₹1.96 lakh crore in April–August 2026, against ₹1.14 lakh crore a year earlier. That is 74% of the full-year Budget estimate.
New fixed deposits earned 5.67% in August against 4.82% inflation. The 0.85-point cushion was 2.92 points in January, and tax wipes it out from the 15% slab up.