The RBI raised its rate to 5.5%. It expects inflation of 5.8%.
India's first rate hike in 3 years 8 months takes the repo rate to 5.50%. The RBI's own forecast puts inflation at 5.8% for October 2026 to June 2027.
CapitalVia Research Desk ·
Data Story
1 September 2026
1 September 2026
Pay & inflation, 2026
Your 8.9% raise
is really a 4.3% raise.
India Inc has budgeted an average 8.9% increment for 2026. Retail inflation in July ran at 4.45%, a 19-month high. Once prices are netted off, the typical employee is taking home about 4.3% more purchasing power — and in IT, less than half of that.
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Where the raise actually goes
Each bar is the full increment on your offer letter, split into what inflation absorbs and what you keep.
Three things this hides
The headline number is an average, and averages are doing a lot of work here.
2.4%
Real gain in IT services — the lowest of any sector, on a 7.0% nominal hike that is itself down from 8.2%.
3.2%
What the average raise is worth against food inflation of 5.52%, which is what a grocery bill actually tracks.
13.6%
Attrition holding steady nationally — but around 20% in IT services, the sector paying the least.
Why this is not simple subtraction. Real growth is (1 + hike) ÷ (1 + inflation) − 1, not hike − inflation. On 8.9% and 4.45% that gives 4.26%, not 4.45% — a gap that widens as both numbers rise.
Sources & caveats
- Inflation is official and verified. All-India CPI for July 2026 is 4.45% (provisional), food inflation 5.52%, rural 4.84%, urban 3.96% — MoSPI / National Statistics Office press release dated 12 August 2026, base 2024=100.
- Salary figures are survey projections, not outcomes. The 8.9% average and sector splits come from an OMAM compensation study (19 November 2025) projecting 2026 increments; Deloitte separately pegged FY26 hikes at 9.1%. These are employer budgets, so actuals usually land lower.
- Comparing a calendar-2026 salary projection against a July 2026 inflation print is an approximation. Full-year inflation may differ, which would move every real figure here.
- Sector attrition figures are from the same OMAM study. "Real gain" is purchasing power, before tax.
- A data explainer for general education. Not investment, tax or legal advice.
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