Official urban inflation is 4.9%. Urban India feels 8.4%.
Households in 19 cities say inflation feels like 8.4%, 1.7× the official urban rate of 4.88%, and expect 10.0% a year from now.
CapitalVia Research Desk ·
Data story · 15 Oct 2026
Prices · September 2026
Wholesale prices rose 11.4%. Shop prices rose 5.5%.
What businesses pay each other for fuel, metals, chemicals and goods is now climbing more than twice as fast as what households pay at the counter. In January it was the other way round.
Wholesale (WPI)
11.39%
Year-on-year, Sept 2026. Up from 1.19% in Jan.
Retail (CPI)
5.54%
Year-on-year, Sept 2026. Up from 2.74% in Jan.
5.85 pts
The gap between the two. Wholesale inflation is running at 2.1× retail inflation.
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The lines crossed in March
Annual inflation by month, 2026 (%). Bars on a common 0–12% scale.
Wholesale (WPI)Retail (CPI)
Jan
1.19%
2.74%
Feb
2.18%
3.21%
March: wholesale overtakes retail
Mar
3.98%
3.40%
April: fuel & power prices jump 25% — WPI leaps to 8.36%
Apr
8.36%
3.48%
May
9.88%
3.93%
Jun
9.97%
4.38%
Jul
9.78%
4.45%
Aug
9.92%
4.83%
Sep
11.39%
5.54%
What is pushing wholesale prices up
Annual inflation in selected WPI groups, September 2026 (%).
Mineral oils (petrol, diesel, etc.)40.02%
Basic metals16.96%
Chemicals16.74%
Textiles13.85%
Rubber & plastic products13.47%
Electrical equipment11.93%
Manufactured products (all)9.76%
Food (WPI food index)8.66%
Retail CPI, for reference5.54%
Electricity, by contrast, was 0.43% cheaper at wholesale than a year ago.
Why the gap matters
Someone is absorbing 5.85 points of price rise. Right now it is mostly businesses.
There are two ways a gap like this narrows: businesses raise their prices and retail inflation catches up, or they hold prices and their margins get thinner. Wholesale prices can also cool, if fuel costs ease.
What it means for you
If you draw a salary
Retail inflation has risen every month since January. Wholesale costs are a lead signal for prices that have not yet reached the shelf.
If you run a business
Fuel, chemicals, plastics and metals cost far more than a year ago. Check which inputs you can still reprice and which contracts lock your selling price.
If you lead a company
Watch for margin pressure in packaging- and energy-heavy lines first. Your customers' tolerance for price rises is tied to a 5.5% CPI, not an 11% WPI.
Read with care. WPI and CPI track different baskets. WPI covers goods only and gives fuel and industrial inputs far more weight; CPI includes services such as rent, health and education, which are rising slowly. So the gap is a signal of cost pressure, not an exact measure of margins. September figures for both are provisional; WPI for September was compiled at an 83.4% response rate and may be revised.
More from Insights
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